TBCB Predicts: 11-21-09 Super Middleweight Tournament

Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward

Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward

By Jimmy Krug.

Mikkel Kessler 42-1 (32 knockouts) vs. Andre Ward 20-0 (13 knockouts)

Jimmy’s Take: The Super Middleweight Tournament is off and running.  Arthur Abraham established himself as a legitimate Super Middle with a brutal KO victory over Jermain Taylor in the final round of their bout and Carl Froch outworked Andre Dirrell by a hair in the eyes of the judges to capture a split decision victory  in their matchup several weeks ago.

Tomorrow, Andre Ward will attempt to out-speed and out-slick defending WBA belt-holder Mikkel Kessler.  After feeding the results into Title Bout Championship Boxing, Kessler was the clear pick – usually by stoppage around the 7th or 8th rounds.

I personally have not seen that much of Ward, but realize that those who are favoring a Ward victory are doing so based upon Ward’s speed and overall athleticism.

From where I’m sitting, I see Kessler as a better fighter since the Calzaghe loss and I really don’t see Ward’s speed being a factor over Kessler experience beyond the 4th round.

I agree with the computer and see Kessler winning this one, probably by TKO around the 10th round.


Mike Hanson’s Take: Coming Soon!

4 Responses to “TBCB Predicts: 11-21-09 Super Middleweight Tournament”

  1. don cogswell says:

    Kessler vs Ward. While I think the spread between their respective CFs is a bit too generous, the nature of the contest, and the individual fighters, is well portrayed in TB. A talented, left-handed boxer, with no power, versus a fundamentally solid boxer/puncher, with a decent punch. Overestimating Kessler seems in vogue- after all, he got slapped to death by Calzaghe, so this is a bit of a mystery to me. TB calls out a 3-5 point win for the German. Ward, despite keeping things close, can never put a high teens/low twenties round on Kessler, like Kessler can on Ward. I’ll go with TB on a comfortable, second half pull-away UD for Kessler. (the talk about Ward not being “tough enough” is ridiculous. This question is never asked of heavy-handed fighters- regardless of their character.) Ward will get a reprieve against a shot Taylor.

  2. Steve Manning says:

    I like the simulation concept for picking the winner of a fight because it removes all emotion from the equation. Each fighter is rated in dozens of areas and the fight is played out round by round.

    In this case, I think the Ward’s best chance is to build an early lead because Kessler will probably get stronger as the fight goes on.

  3. don cogswell says:

    Well, you win some and you lose some. It looked like Ward fought the best fight he was capable of, and Kessler may have been revealed as a bit less than thought. He deserves a lower CF, especially against a boxer, with a lower PL to match. Ward is concomitantly a bit better- not by much, but a little in CF and PL.

  4. MikeHanson says:

    Didn’t have time to do this one and it hurts because I would have picked Ward and gotten back one on the computer!

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