TBCB Predicts: 11-21-09 Super Middleweight Tournament
Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward
By Jimmy Krug.
Mikkel Kessler 42-1 (32 knockouts) vs. Andre Ward 20-0 (13 knockouts)
Jimmy’s Take: The Super Middleweight Tournament is off and running. Arthur Abraham established himself as a legitimate Super Middle with a brutal KO victory over Jermain Taylor in the final round of their bout and Carl Froch outworked Andre Dirrell by a hair in the eyes of the judges to capture a split decision victory in their matchup several weeks ago.
Tomorrow, Andre Ward will attempt to out-speed and out-slick defending WBA belt-holder Mikkel Kessler. After feeding the results into Title Bout Championship Boxing, Kessler was the clear pick – usually by stoppage around the 7th or 8th rounds.
I personally have not seen that much of Ward, but realize that those who are favoring a Ward victory are doing so based upon Ward’s speed and overall athleticism.
From where I’m sitting, I see Kessler as a better fighter since the Calzaghe loss and I really don’t see Ward’s speed being a factor over Kessler experience beyond the 4th round.
I agree with the computer and see Kessler winning this one, probably by TKO around the 10th round.
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Mike Hanson’s Take: Coming Soon!
Kessler vs Ward. While I think the spread between their respective CFs is a bit too generous, the nature of the contest, and the individual fighters, is well portrayed in TB. A talented, left-handed boxer, with no power, versus a fundamentally solid boxer/puncher, with a decent punch. Overestimating Kessler seems in vogue- after all, he got slapped to death by Calzaghe, so this is a bit of a mystery to me. TB calls out a 3-5 point win for the German. Ward, despite keeping things close, can never put a high teens/low twenties round on Kessler, like Kessler can on Ward. I’ll go with TB on a comfortable, second half pull-away UD for Kessler. (the talk about Ward not being “tough enough” is ridiculous. This question is never asked of heavy-handed fighters- regardless of their character.) Ward will get a reprieve against a shot Taylor.
I like the simulation concept for picking the winner of a fight because it removes all emotion from the equation. Each fighter is rated in dozens of areas and the fight is played out round by round.
In this case, I think the Ward’s best chance is to build an early lead because Kessler will probably get stronger as the fight goes on.
Well, you win some and you lose some. It looked like Ward fought the best fight he was capable of, and Kessler may have been revealed as a bit less than thought. He deserves a lower CF, especially against a boxer, with a lower PL to match. Ward is concomitantly a bit better- not by much, but a little in CF and PL.
Didn’t have time to do this one and it hurts because I would have picked Ward and gotten back one on the computer!